Not financial advice. Not intended for UK audiences. Not regulated by the FCA. For educational purposes only.
FOMC Signal: March 18, 2026
How does BTC react in the 7 days after FOMC? 33 meetings since Jan 2022, split by regime, decision, and tone.
Tonight's Setup
7D Trend Into Meeting
+5.7%
Key Event
Dot plot + Powell presser
Historical Signal
Average BTC return in the 7 days after each FOMC meeting. Highlighted rows = tonight's closest matches.
| Filter | n | Avg 7D | Median 7D | % Positive | Signal |
|---|
Tonight's Scenario
The hold is locked in. The only unknown is Powell's tone. Here's what each tone has meant historically for Bear + Hold.
| If Powell is... | n | Avg 7D | Median 7D | Signal |
|---|
Bottom Line
- Tone is the only variable. The hold is 99% priced in.
- Hawkish holds have historically been the worst outcome for BTC: avg -4.2% over 7 days.
- Dovish holds are mildly positive: avg +1.5%, and positive more often than not.
- Watch the dot plot: fewer 2026 cuts = hawkish signal. More cuts or growth concern = dovish.
- BTC is up 5.7% into the meeting. If Powell disappoints, that bounce could unwind.
Full Dataset
Every FOMC meeting since Jan 2022. Sorted newest first. Tonight highlighted.
| Date | Decision | Tone | Regime | BTC | 1W Prior | 1D | 7D |
|---|